Objective To study the predictability of dynamic prediction model of clinical pancreatic fistula in patients with or without pancreatic duct stent in laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD).Methods A total of 66 patients who underwent LPD in West China Hospital of Sichuan University from November 2019 to October 2020 were enrolled in the randomized controlled trial (registration number: ChiCTR1900026653). The perioperative data of the patients were collected in real time. The patients were divided into groups according to whether the pancreatic duct support tube was retained during the operation, and the probability prediction value was output according to the model formula. The specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, discrimination, and stability of the prediction results were analyzed.Results For the group with pancreatic stent tubes, the specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of the model at the model cut-off points on the postoperative day 2, 3 and 5 were 92.0%, 76.7% and 57.1%, 50.0%, 100% and 66.7%, and 88.8%, 78.8% and 61.3%, respectively. The areas under the ROC curve were 0.870, 0.956 and 0.702, respectively. The kappa values of the prediction result based on model cut-off point and cut-off point of ROC curve were 0.308, 0.582 and 0.744, respectively. Whereas for those who without the stent tube, the specificity, sensitivity, and prediction accuracy of the model on the postoperative day 5 were 66.7%, 100% and 72%, respectively. The area under curve at different time points were 0.304, 0.821, and 0.958, respectively. The kappa values at the last two time points were 0.465 and 0.449, respectively.Conclusions For patients with pancreatic duct support during LPD operation, the dynamic model of clinical pancreatic fistula can more accurately screen high-risk groups of clinical pancreatic fistula, and has better stability of prediction results. For patients without supporting tube, in the case of flexible adjustment of the boundary point, the model can also be more accurate screening on the 3rd and 5th days after operation.

Citation： SHASHI Shah, LIU Runwen, CAI He, PENG Bing. Predictive performance of dynamic prediction model of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula in laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy with or without pancreatic duct stent. CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY, 2021, 28(9): 1137-1143. doi: 10.7507/1007-9424.202105050 Copy

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