Analysis and forecast of trends in Parkinson’s disease incidence among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

HAN Yuwei , HAO Guangzhi , HUO Da , WU Weidong ,  GONG Shun

Department of Neurosurgery, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang 110016, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

GONG Shun, Email: gongshunsmmu@foxmail.com

Keywords：

Parkinson’s disease; Incidence rate; Elderly population; Predictive analysis; Age-period-cohort model

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202411068

Video：

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Objective This study aims to analyze the trends in Parkinson’s disease incidence rates among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021 and to forecast incidence growth over the next 20 years, providing. Methods Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were employed to analyze temporal trends in Parkinson’s disease incidence, and the Nordpred model was used to predict case numbers and incidence rates among the elderly in China from 2022 to 2044. Results Findings indicated a significant increase in Parkinson’s disease incidence among China’s elderly population from 1990 to 2021, with crude and age-standardized incidence rates rising from 95.37 per 100 000 and 111.05 per 100 000 to 170.52 per 100 000 and 183.91 per 100 000, respectively. Predictions suggested that by 2044, the number of cases will rise to approximately 878 264, with the age-standardized incidence rate reaching 223.4 per 100 000, and men showing significantly higher incidence rates than women. The rapid increase in both cases and incidence rates indicates that Parkinson’s disease will continue to impose a heavy health burden on China’s elderly population. Conclusion The burden of Parkinson’s disease in China’s elderly population has grown significantly and is expected to worsen. To address the rising incidence rates effectively, it is recommended to enhance early screening and health education for high-risk groups, improve diagnostic and treatment protocols, and prioritize resource allocation to Parkinson’s disease prevention and care services to reduce future public health burdens.

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19.	Zhang J, Fan Y, Liang H, et al. Global, regional and national temporal trends in Parkinson's disease incidence, disability-adjusted life year rates in middle-aged and older adults: a cross-national inequality analysis and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease 2021. Neurol Sci, 2025, 46(4): 1647-1660.
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22.	Jin W, Huang K, Zhang M, et al. Global, regional, and national cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts in 1990-2044: a cross-sectional and age-period-cohort forecast study. Cancer Epidemiol, 2024, 91: 102583.
23.	Sun J, Guo Y, Wang X, et al. mHealth for aging China: opportunities and challenges. Aging Dis, 2016, 7(1): 53-67.
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1. Tolosa E, Garrido A, Scholz SW, et al. Challenges in the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease. Lancet Neurol, 2021, 20(5): 385-397.
2. 葛瑞东, 许海阳, 郭京伟, 等. 老年帕金森病患者早期姿势控制障碍的特征. 中国康复医学杂志, 2024, 39(11): 1620-1624.
3. Bloem BR, Okun MS, Klein C. Parkinson's disease. Lancet, 2021, 397(10291): 2284-2303.
4. Pauly L, Rauschenberger A, Pauly C, et al. Cognition and other non-motor symptoms in an at-risk cohort for Parkinson's disease defined by REM-sleep behavior disorder and hyposmia. J Parkinsons Dis, 2024, 14(3): 545-556.
5. Xu T, Dong W, Liu J, et al. Disease burden of Parkinson's disease in China and its provinces from 1990 to 2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2024, 46: 101078.
6. Nguyen PV, Hjelholt TJ, Heide-Jørgensen U, et al. Postoperative complications, mortality, and quality of in-hospital care among hip fracture patients with Parkinson's disease. Injury, 2022, 53(6): 2150-2157.
7. Hommel ALAJ, Krijthe JH, Darweesh S, et al. The association of comorbidity with Parkinson's disease-related hospitalizations. Parkinsonism Relat Disord, 2022, 104: 123-128.
8. Jo T, Yasunaga H, Michihata N, et al. Influence of Parkinsonism on outcomes of elderly pneumonia patients. Parkinsonism Relat Disord, 2018, 54: 25-29.
9. GBD 2016 Parkinson's Disease Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of Parkinson's disease, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016. Lancet Neurol, 2018, 17(11): 939-953.
10. Qi S, Yin P, Wang L, et al. Prevalence of Parkinson's disease: a community-based study in China. Mov Disord, 2021, 36(12): 2940-2944.
11. Ma CL, Su L, Xie JJ, et al. The prevalence and incidence of Parkinson's disease in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Neural Transm (Vienna), 2014, 121(2): 123-134.
12. Meng D, Wu J, Huang X, et al. Prevalence of Parkinson's disease among adults aged 45 years and older in China: a cross-sectional study based on the China health and retirement longitudinal study. BMC Public Health, 2024, 24(1): 1218.
13. Zheng Z, Zhu Z, Zhou C, et al. Burden of Parkinson disease in China, 1990-2019: findings from the 2019 global burden of disease study. Neuroepidemiology, 2023, 57(1): 51-64.
14. GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2162-2203.
15. GBD 2021 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2100-2132.
16. Yang Q, Chang X, Li S, et al. Disease burden of Parkinson's disease in Asia and its 34 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021. Neuroepidemiology, 2024, 14: 1-33.
17. Qiu H, Cao S, Xu R. Cancer incidence, mortality, and burden in China: a time-trend analysis and comparison with the United States and United Kingdom based on the global epidemiological data released in 2020. Cancer Commun (Lond), 2021, 41(10): 1037-1048.
18. Huang D, Lai H, Shi X, et al. Global temporal trends and projections of acute hepatitis E incidence among women of childbearing age: age-period-cohort analysis 2021. J Infect, 2024, 89(4): 106250.
19. Zhang J, Fan Y, Liang H, et al. Global, regional and national temporal trends in Parkinson's disease incidence, disability-adjusted life year rates in middle-aged and older adults: a cross-national inequality analysis and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease 2021. Neurol Sci, 2025, 46(4): 1647-1660.
20. GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators. Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2204-2256.
21. Chen Q, Li T, Ding H, et al. Age-period-cohort analysis of epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture in China from 1992 to 2021 and forecasts for 2046. Front Public Health, 2024, 12: 1428068.
22. Jin W, Huang K, Zhang M, et al. Global, regional, and national cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts in 1990-2044: a cross-sectional and age-period-cohort forecast study. Cancer Epidemiol, 2024, 91: 102583.
23. Sun J, Guo Y, Wang X, et al. mHealth for aging China: opportunities and challenges. Aging Dis, 2016, 7(1): 53-67.
24. Ou Z, Pan J, Tang S, et al. Global trends in the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability of Parkinson's disease in 204 countries/territories from 1990 to 2019. Front Public Health, 2021, 9: 776847.
25. Adamson A, Buck SA, Freyberg Z, et al. Sex differences in dopaminergic vulnerability to environmental toxicants - implications for Parkinson's disease. Curr Environ Health Rep, 2022, 9(4): 563-573.
26. Lucchini RG, Guazzetti S, Renzetti S, et al. Metal exposure and SNCA rs356219 polymorphism associated with Parkinson disease and Parkinsonism. Front Neurol, 2020, 11: 556337.

Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Latest ArticlesAnalysis and forecast of trends in Parkinson’s disease incidence among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021

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