Trends in the burden of disease from tobacco-induced trachea, bronchus and lung cancer from 1990 to 2021_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

FU Yunfei , WANG Yijun , HUANG Wenxia , HOU Li ,  JIA Mei

Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100007, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

JIA Mei, Email: janemei@126.com

Keywords：

Lung cancer; Smoking; Epidemiology; Burden of disease

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202501089

Video：

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Objective The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data were used to analyze the trend of the burden of disease of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (TBL Cancer) caused by tobacco in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the future development trend. The data analyze the trend of disease burden of TBL Cancer caused by tobacco in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and predict the future development trend, which will provide a scientific basis for tobacco control and cancer prevention in China. Methods We performed descriptive analysis of the indicators of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in the GBD 2021 database; The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change (APCC); The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the effect of three independent factors, age, period and cohort, on disease mortality; and the BAPC model was used to project the burden of disease for TBL Cancer from 2022 to 2036. Results From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of TBL Cancer attributable to tobacco showed an increasing trend in both China and globally, with a much higher burden of disease in men than in women, and a much higher burden of disease attributable to smoking than to secondhand smoke. The APC model showed that the net drift values of mortality in China and globally were -0.1982% and -1.5921%, respectively, from 1992 to 2021; the age The APC model showed that the net drift of mortality in China and the world was -0.1982% and -1.5921%, respectively, from 1992 to 2021; the age effect showed that the mortality rate of both China and the world increased with age; the period effect model showed that the mortality rate of China increased and then decreased, and the global mortality rate generally decreased; the cohort model showed that the mortality rate of China and the world increased and then decreased; the BAPC model showed that the mortality rate of China declined slowly in the period of 2022-2036, and the global mortality rate declined even more dramatically. Conclusion The burden of TBL Cancer attributable to tobacco was higher in China than in the world from 1990 to 2021. Tobacco control measures in China have begun to bear fruit in recent years, and we should continue to strengthen our tobacco control initiatives and popularize health knowledge in order to make progress towards the goal of the “Healthy China 2030” plan.

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14.	任泽平. 中国老龄化报告. 发展研究, 2023, 40(2): 22-30.
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19.	李西岳, 王洵, 朱雪. 人表皮生长因子受体2阳性非小细胞肺癌靶向治疗药物临床研究进展. 中国新药杂志, 2024, 33(9): 895-903.
20.	廖光英, 张滨, 陈小丹. 基于2020年中国家庭追踪调查的我国15-64岁居民吸烟现状及影响因素. 预防医学论坛, 2023, 29(1): 15-18.
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25.	梁锌, 刘梦雯, 张丽, 等. 全球部分地区肺癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况分析. 中国肿瘤, 2022, 31(9): 683-692.
26.	胡志强, 游伟程, 潘凯枫, 等. 中、美两国癌症流行特征分析—《2023美国癌症统计报告》解读. 科技导报, 2023, 41(18): 18-28.
27.	孙燕. 肿瘤内科治疗的回顾和展望. 国外医学(肿瘤学分册), 2000, (1): 5-11.
28.	许靖, 余欣, 马洪涛, 等. 2006-2020年中国肺癌死亡趋势分析—基于年龄-时期-队列模型. 肿瘤防治研究, 2023, 50(8): 788-793.
29.	马运, 袁浩冉, 胡昊, 等. 1990-2019年中国归因于烟草的肺癌疾病负担变化趋势分析. 现代预防医学, 2024, 51(8): 1345-1351.
30.	辛雯艳, 郭晓莉, 何小双, 等. 1990-2019年我国居民肺癌死亡水平与疾病负担趋势预测研究. 中华肿瘤防治杂志, 2024, 31(2): 65-73.
31.	薛雯, 钟理, 周敬华. 吸烟致肺癌机制及遗传易感因素研究进展. 中国公共卫生, 2011, 27(8): 958-960.
32.	Nagah A, Amer A. Different mechanisms of cigarette smoking-induced lung cancer. Acta Biotheor, 2021, 69(1): 37-52.

1. Bray F, Laversanne M, Sung H, et al. Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin, 2024, 74(3): 229-263.
2. 姚一菲, 孙可欣, 郑荣寿. 《2022全球癌症统计报告》解读: 中国与全球对比. 中国普外基础与临床杂志, 2024, 31(7): 769-780.
3. Deng Y, Zhao P, Zhou L, et al. Epidemiological trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer at the global, regional, and national levels: a population-based study. J Hematol Oncol, 2020, 13(1): 98.
4. 陆如山, 陈新华. 世界卫生组织十分重视全球控烟工作. 中国健康教育, 1995, (6): 23-25.
5. Yang JJ, Yu D, Wen W, et al. Tobacco smoking and mortality in Asia. JAMA Netw Open, 2019, 2(3): e191474.
6. 赫捷, 李霓, 陈万青, 等. 中国肺癌筛查与早诊早治指南(2021, 北京). 中国肿瘤, 2021, 30(2): 81-111.
7. Huang S, Tang O, Zheng X, et al. Effectiveness of smoking cessation on the high-risk population of lung cancer with early screening: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials until January 2022. Arch Public Health, 2023, 81(1): 101.
8. Liu Y, Ni R, Zhang H, et al. Identification of feature genes for smoking-related lung adenocarcinoma based on gene expression profile data. Onco Targets Ther, 2016, 9: 7397-7407.
9. Wang J, Guo C, Wang J, et al. Tumor mutation signature reveals the risk factors of lung adenocarcinoma with EGFR or KRAS mutation. Cancer Control, 2025, 32: 10732748241307363.
10. Zhang J, Zhang Y, Lei Y, et al. Elevated serum direct bilirubin and smoking status are prognostic factors for EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy. Cancers (Basel), 2024, 16(23): 3982.
11. 钟文昭, 李巍, 黄劭洪, 等. 性别、吸烟状态及病理类型对肺癌患者化学治疗和手术预后的影响. 新医学, 2015, 46(7): 433-438.
12. Kawai H, Ishii A, Washiya K, et al. Estrogen receptor alpha and beta are prognostic factors in non-small cell lung cancer. Clin Cancer Res, 2005, 11(14): 5084-5089.
13. 王辰, 肖丹, 池慧. 《中国吸烟危害健康报告2020》概要. 中国循环杂志, 2021, 36(10): 937-952.
14. 任泽平. 中国老龄化报告. 发展研究, 2023, 40(2): 22-30.
15. 卫生健康委, 发展改革委, 教育部, 等. 关于印发健康中国行动—癌症防治实施方案(2019-2022年)的通知. 2019.
16. 董懂, 张亚杰, 李鹤成. 2024年第2版《NCCN肿瘤临床实践指南—肺癌筛查》更新解读. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2024, 31(9): 1253-1257.
17. NCCN. NCCN clinical practice guidelines in oncology: non-small cell lung cancer version 5. 2024.
18. 徐明翠, 王剑, 阳韬. 晚期非小细胞肺癌靶向治疗进展. 临床肺科杂志, 2023, 28(1): 108-116.
19. 李西岳, 王洵, 朱雪. 人表皮生长因子受体2阳性非小细胞肺癌靶向治疗药物临床研究进展. 中国新药杂志, 2024, 33(9): 895-903.
20. 廖光英, 张滨, 陈小丹. 基于2020年中国家庭追踪调查的我国15-64岁居民吸烟现状及影响因素. 预防医学论坛, 2023, 29(1): 15-18.
21. Olivieri M, Murgia N, Carsin AE, et al. Effects of smoking bans on passive smoking exposure at work and at home: the European community respiratory health survey. Indoor Air, 2019, 29(4): 670-679.
22. International Early Lung Cancer Action Program Investigators, Henschke CI, Yip R, et al. Women's susceptibility to tobacco carcinogens and survival after diagnosis of lung cancer. JAMA, 2006, 296(2): 180-184.
23. Kawai H, Ishii A, Washiya K, et al. Estrogen receptor alpha and beta are prognostic factors in non-small cell lung cancer. Clin Cancer Res, 2005, 11(14): 5084-5089.
24. 高冬青, 王家林. 肺癌危险因素研究现状. 中华肿瘤防治杂志, 2019, 26(21): 1657-1662.
25. 梁锌, 刘梦雯, 张丽, 等. 全球部分地区肺癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况分析. 中国肿瘤, 2022, 31(9): 683-692.
26. 胡志强, 游伟程, 潘凯枫, 等. 中、美两国癌症流行特征分析—《2023美国癌症统计报告》解读. 科技导报, 2023, 41(18): 18-28.
27. 孙燕. 肿瘤内科治疗的回顾和展望. 国外医学(肿瘤学分册), 2000, (1): 5-11.
28. 许靖, 余欣, 马洪涛, 等. 2006-2020年中国肺癌死亡趋势分析—基于年龄-时期-队列模型. 肿瘤防治研究, 2023, 50(8): 788-793.
29. 马运, 袁浩冉, 胡昊, 等. 1990-2019年中国归因于烟草的肺癌疾病负担变化趋势分析. 现代预防医学, 2024, 51(8): 1345-1351.
30. 辛雯艳, 郭晓莉, 何小双, 等. 1990-2019年我国居民肺癌死亡水平与疾病负担趋势预测研究. 中华肿瘤防治杂志, 2024, 31(2): 65-73.
31. 薛雯, 钟理, 周敬华. 吸烟致肺癌机制及遗传易感因素研究进展. 中国公共卫生, 2011, 27(8): 958-960.
32. Nagah A, Amer A. Different mechanisms of cigarette smoking-induced lung cancer. Acta Biotheor, 2021, 69(1): 37-52.

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