WU Weimin 1 , WANG Haihong 1 , XU Feng 1 , HU Jianfang 2
  • 1. Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510800, P. R. China;
  • 2. Department of Brain Disease, Guangzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine, Guangzhou 510800, P. R. China;
HU Jianfang, Email: hjf5630@163.com
Intracerebral hemorrhage; Burden of disease; Gender differences; Risk factors; Trend analysis
10.7507/1672-2531.202503027
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Objective To analyze the trends and major risk factors of ICH disease burden by gender in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict ICH incidence and mortality in China and globally by gender from 2022 to 2046. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), data on ICH in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were collected. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) were used to assess ICH disease burden and risk factors by gender. Joinpoint regression models were employed to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) for trend analysis. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict ICH incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2046. Results From 1990 to 2021, ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR for ICH in China and globally showed declining trends across genders (P<0.05). For males in China and globally, the AAPC for ASIR was −1.63% (95%CI −1.69% to −1.57%) and −1.14% (95%CI −1.20% to −1.07%), respectively. For females in China and globally, the AAPC for ASIR was −2.27% (95%CI −2.35% to −2.18%) and −1.40% (95%CI −1.40% to −1.33%), respectively. The AAPC for ASMR in Chinese and global males was −1.81% (95%CI −2.07% to −1.55%) and −1.29% (95%CI −1.43% to −1.15%), respectively, while for females in China and globally, it was −2.74% (95%CI −2.94% to −2.54%) and −1.69% (95%CI −1.82% to −1.55%), respectively. The AAPC for ASDR in Chinese and global males was −1.91% (95%CI −2.11% to −1.72%) and −1.39% (95%CI −1.52% to −1.26%), respectively, and for females in China and globally, it was −2.93% (95%CI −3.07% to −2.79%) and −1.85% (95%CI −1.96% to −1.74%), respectively. By 2046, the predicted ASIR for ICH in Chinese and global males is projected to be 38.08/100 000 and 44.23/100 000, respectively, and 28.27/100 000 and 29.15/100 000 for Chinese and global females. The ASMR is predicted to reach 37.01/100 000 and 68.57/100 000 for Chinese and global males, and 22.39/100 000 and 29.45/100 000 for Chinese and global females, respectively. Conclusion The disease burden of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in China has demonstrated a declining trend, yet it persistently exceeds global averages and exhibits pronounced gender disparities. There is an urgent need to enhance focus on these gender−specific variations and implement precisely targeted interventions tailored to the distinct risk factor profiles of each gender, in order to achieve further reductions in ICH−related disease burden.

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