Objective To assess the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in China from 1990 to 2021. In addition, we analyzed the effects of age, period, and cohort on the trends in TC burden and projected the disease burden from 2022 to 2050. Methods Data derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were employed. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). To elucidate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort, we employed an APC model. In addition, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to project the future burden of TC associated with high BMI in China during 2022-2050. Results From 1990 to 2021 in China, mortality from TC attributable to high BMI increased, with stable age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) but rising age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR). APC model analysis revealed that the age effect indicated a gradual increase in disease burden with advancing age. The time effect showed a decline in mortality risk from 1999 to 2004, followed by a rise in disease burden over time thereafter. The cohort effect demonstrated a persistent increase in disease risk, suggesting a growing disease burden among younger cohorts. Conclusion Between 1990 and 2021, China’s TC burden attributable to high BMI increased, with projections indicating further rises among males but declines among females, highlighting the need for targeted obesity prevention.
Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal trends in hepatitis B-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) at the global, regional, and national levels. Methods We extracted data on hepatitis B-related mortality numbers, DALYs, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardised DALY rates (ASDR) attributed to high BMI from the GBD 2021 database for the period 1990-2021, stratified by gender, age, country, and social demographic index (SDI). Time trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and decomposition analysis and frontier analysis were employed to identify the drivers of burden changes and leading countries. Inequality indicators (inequality slope index SII and concentration index CI) were used to measure health disparities across SDI levels, and the Bayesian age period cohort model (BAPC) was applied to predict disease trends up to 2050. Results The global burden of hepatitis B disease attributable to high BMI continues to rise. In 2021, the number of DALYs reached 499 900 (four times that of 1990), and the number of deaths was five times that of 1990. The burden and rate of increase were most pronounced in Asia: in 2021, East Asia recorded 7 919.70 deaths (95%UI 2 984.05 to 14 386.39) and 257 954.31 DALYs (95%UI 97 807.17 to 482 232.54), ranked highest among the 21 GBD regions; From 1990 to 2021, South Asia recorded the fastest increase in ASMR (EAPC=4.99, 95%CI 4.83 to 5.16) and the highest growth rate in ASDR (EAPC=4.92, 95%CI 4.74 to 5.10); at the national level, China and the United States had the heaviest burden. Countries with medium SDI had the highest burden, peaking at an SDI of 0.65. Global and regional decomposition analyses indicated that epidemiological changes were the primary drivers of the increased burden. The CI and SII values derived from inequality analyses of ASDR and ASMR had both increased, indicating worsening health inequalities. Frontier analysis further confirmed that certain countries, such as Tonga and Mongolia, bear a significantly higher burden than expected for their developmental level, demonstrating marked disparities in disease burden across nations. The BAPC model predicts that the burden attributable to high BMI will continue to rise in the absence of interventions. Conclusion High BMI has become an important risk factor for hepatitis B-related diseases globally, with the burden particularly pronounced in Asian regions and middle-income countries. Health inequalities must not be overlooked. Precise interventions should be implemented based on regional, gender, and age differences.