Objective The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data were used to analyze the trend of the burden of disease of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (TBL Cancer) caused by tobacco in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the future development trend. The data analyze the trend of disease burden of TBL Cancer caused by tobacco in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and predict the future development trend, which will provide a scientific basis for tobacco control and cancer prevention in China. Methods We performed descriptive analysis of the indicators of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in the GBD 2021 database; The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change (APCC); The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the effect of three independent factors, age, period and cohort, on disease mortality; and the BAPC model was used to project the burden of disease for TBL Cancer from 2022 to 2036. Results From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of TBL Cancer attributable to tobacco showed an increasing trend in both China and globally, with a much higher burden of disease in men than in women, and a much higher burden of disease attributable to smoking than to secondhand smoke. The APC model showed that the net drift values of mortality in China and globally were -0.1982% and -1.5921%, respectively, from 1992 to 2021; the age The APC model showed that the net drift of mortality in China and the world was -0.1982% and -1.5921%, respectively, from 1992 to 2021; the age effect showed that the mortality rate of both China and the world increased with age; the period effect model showed that the mortality rate of China increased and then decreased, and the global mortality rate generally decreased; the cohort model showed that the mortality rate of China and the world increased and then decreased; the BAPC model showed that the mortality rate of China declined slowly in the period of 2022-2036, and the global mortality rate declined even more dramatically. Conclusion The burden of TBL Cancer attributable to tobacco was higher in China than in the world from 1990 to 2021. Tobacco control measures in China have begun to bear fruit in recent years, and we should continue to strengthen our tobacco control initiatives and popularize health knowledge in order to make progress towards the goal of the “Healthy China 2030” plan.