ObjectiveTo analyze the prevalence of muscle and tendon injuries in Chinese from 2005 to 2019. MethodsUsing Joinpoint regression model and age-time-cohort model, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the incidence of muscle and tendon injury in Chinese from 2005 to 2019. The influence of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of muscle and tendon injury was analyzed by sex. ResultsFrom 2005 to 2019, the incidence of muscle and tendon injury in Chinese residents increased (AAPC=2.0%, P<0.05), and the AAPC of females was higher than that of males (AAPC values were 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively, P<0.05). The results of age-time-cohort model showed that the age effect, period effect and cohort effect coefficient were statistically significant. The age effect and cohort effect coefficient fluctuated, and the period effect coefficient increased continuously. The period effect is dominant in three effects. ConclusionThe incidence of muscle and tendon injuries in Chinese residents has increased rapidly. Children aged 5 to 9, people aged 20 to 29 and elderly women aged 85 to 94 are the key groups.
ObjectiveTo comprehensively analyze the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict the trend of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031, in order to improve its prevention and treatment strategies. MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were extracted and analyzed for the disease burden of nasopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, and tracheal, bronchial and lung cancers (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer) in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software was utilized to analyze the corresponding trends. The grey prediction model [GM (1,1)] was employed to forecast the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 2022 to 2031. ResultsThe disease burden of respiratory cancers attributed to tobacco and occupational carcinogens in China raised year by year from 1990 to 2021. Among the respiratory cancers, lung cancer led in terms of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and their respective age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021, followed by nasopharyngeal cancer, with laryngeal cancer being the lowest. Analysis via the Joinpoint regression model indicated that, overall, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers in China decreased during this time period, while that of lung cancer increased. From a gender perspective, the disease burden of male patients with nasopharyngeal, laryngeal, and lung cancers was significantly higher than that of female patients from 1990 to 2021. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 1990 to 2021 was still relatively heavy. As of 2021, the middle-aged and elderly population above 50 years old was the primary group suffering from the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China. The prediction model showed that the age-standardized rate of nasopharyngeal cancer in China would decline from 2022 to 2031; the age-standardized incidence rate of laryngeal cancer in China would increase, while its age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate would both decrease; the age-standardized rates of lung cancer in China would all increase. ConclusionIn the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers in China has lightened, but the overall disease burden of lung cancer is still on the rise. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China is still relatively heavy. The disease burden in male patients is significantly higher than that in female patients, and the population above 50 years old is the main group suffering from the disease burden. In the next 10 years, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China will still tend to increase. Therefore, targeted prevention and treatment strategies for men and the middle-aged and elderly populations remain key challenges that urgently need to be addressed in China's response to respiratory cancers.
ObjectiveTo systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and epidemiological trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) disease burden attributed to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, based on predictive models, assess the patterns of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031, providing a scientific basis for formulating targeted TBL prevention and control strategies. MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analyzed the disease burden data of TBL attributed to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021. R Studio 4.3.2 software was used to analyze the corresponding trends and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model was used to predict the status of the disease burden of TBL attributed to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States from 2022 to 2031. ResultsIn 2021, the highest number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributed to air pollution were in China (211 400 patients and 4.8947 million person-years), followed by the United States (6 000 patients and 124 300 person-years). The age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of TBL due to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States showed a decreasing trend (with an average annual percentage change of<0). From 1990 to 2021, the ASMR and ASDR of TBL in China due to air pollution were much higher than those in the United States and the global average. In terms of gender, from 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of male patients with TBL attributed to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States was much higher than that of female patients. The BAPC prediction model showed that from 2022 to 2031, the ASMR and ASDR of TBL attributed to air pollution will showed an upward trend globally, while they showed a downward trend in China and the United States. ConclusionOver the past 30 years, the air pollution-related TBL disease burden in the world and in China and the United States has continued to decline, but China's level is still significantly higher than the global average. The disease burden in men far exceeds that in women, with men and the elderly population aged ≥50 years being high-risk groups. In the future, the global disease trend may reverse and rise, while China and the United States are expected to continuously decline. However, precise prevention and control for high-risk groups remains a key challenge.
ObjectiveTo analyze the gender-specific distribution patterns of the disease burden of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer) attributed to tobacco from 1990 to 2021 globally and in China and the United States (US), and to predict the trend of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031, aiming to provide multi-dimensional evidence-based support for optimizing tobacco control strategies and precise lung cancer prevention and control systems. MethodsData on the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco from 1990 to 2021 globally and in China and the US were extracted and integrated from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software was used to analyze the corresponding trends in disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model was employed to forecast the disease burden of lung cancer from 2022 to 2031. ResultsIn 2021, China had the highest number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung cancer attributed to tobacco, followed by the US. The top three risk factors for lung cancer globally and in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 were tobacco, air pollution, and occupational risks. The disease burden of lung cancer patients attributed to tobacco has been decreasing year by year in the global and US populations [the average annual percentage change (AAPC) values of age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs rate were: globally: −0.96%, −1.28%; US: −2.33%, −2.72%], while it has been increasing in China (the AAPC values of age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs rate were 0.28% and −0.02%, respectively). From a gender perspective, the disease burden of male patients with lung cancer attributed to tobacco was much higher than that of female patients from 1990 to 2021. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 was still heavy, with China’s burden being higher than that of the US. The elderly population aged ≥65 years in the global context and in China and the US was the primary group affected by the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco. The BAPC prediction model indicated that from 2022 to 2031, the age-standardized rates of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in the global context and in China and the US would show a declining trend. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China and the US was still heavy compared to the global average, with China’s burden being significantly higher than that of the US. The focus on prevention and control for both countries remains among the middle-aged and elderly population (especially males), which is a key challenge for tobacco-related lung cancer prevention and treatment work in the next 10 years.
Objective To integrate and analyze the disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019, along with the differences between genders, and predict the trends in disease burden changes from 2020 to 2029 to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Methods The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 was extracted and integrated from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and the corresponding trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model with Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The gray prediction model [GM (1, 1) ] was used to forecast the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China from 2020 to 2029. Results In 2019, the leading causes of esophageal cancer in China were tobacco, alcohol, high body mass index, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, accounting for the first to fifth positions in esophageal cancer deaths. From a gender perspective, in 2019, the death number and standardized mortality rate for males were 18.97 times and 20.00 times higher than for females, respectively. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and standardized DALYs rate for males were 33.08 times and 24.78 times higher than those for females, respectively, indicating a heavier disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer among Chinese males. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in deaths and DALYs due to alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China was 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, showing a continuous upward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The AAPC values for standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 were –0.92% and –1.23%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The population aged ≥55 years was the main group bearing the disease burden among all age groups from 1990 to 2019. The gray prediction model predicted that by 2029, the overall standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate would decrease to 2.94/100 000and 67.94/100 000, with a greater decline in females than in males. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China has slightly decreased. However, the reduction in disease burden is still lower compared to the overall decline in esophageal cancer burden, and the disease burden for males is significantly higher than for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly population remains a major issue in addressing alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China.